The sweet-spots for pay, by bank, in the 2018-2019 bonus round

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Bonuses 2018-2019

Christmas may not be a time to think about pay, but on the off-chance that you are, or that you're reading this after the big day, we'd like to present you with the most detailed forecasts yet for the winners and losers in the coming bonus round.

The predictions below are based on assessments of the comparative performance of global business areas by bank in the first nine months of 2018 by Tricumen, a banking intelligence firm. Tricumen's assessments are based upon its own research: banks don't make this level of detail public.

To the extent that out-performance, equal performance and under-performance are aligned to getting paid (or not), we've used Tricumen's figures as a proxy for what's coming in the 2018 bonus round. Naturally, there may be disparities - at banks where entire divisions under-performed, one successful desk is likely to be dragged down by the rest. Equally, Tricumen's appraisal of each bank's performance is based only on the first nine months of the year, creating potential for ructions between October and December. Given that most banks have issued negative guidance for performance in the final quarter, it's probably safe to assume that bonuses for 2018 will be assigned more parsimoniously than the predictions below might suggest, although their distribution by division should still apply.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots:  None at all. Tricumen says BAML didn't out-perform the market in any areas in the first nine months of 2018.

Neutral spots: Securitization, equity capital markets (ECM), rates, equity derivatives, prime services. - This is where Tricumen says BofA performed in line with the market in the first nine months of 2018.

Sour spots: Debt capital markets bonds, debt capital markets loans, FX, credit, commodities, cash equities. Tricumen says BAML under-performed in all these areas in the first three quarters. 

Barclays bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: FX, rates, equity derivatives, prime services.

Neutral spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitization, M&A, credit, cash equities.

Sour spots: None.

BNP Paribas bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitization, equity derivatives.

Neutral spots: M&A, prop trading.

Sour spots: ECM, FX, rates, credit, commodities, cash equities, prime services.

Citi bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: FX, cash equities, equity derivatives.

Neutral spots: Prime services.

Sour spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitisation, equity capital markets, M&A, rates, credit, commodities.

Credit Suisse bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: Equity capital markets, M&A.

Neutral spots: Rates, credit.

Sour spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitisation, cash equities, equity derivatives [although this is questionable given the bank's claim to have increased revenues in equity derivatives by 70% year on year in the third quarter], prime services.

Deutsche Bank bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: M&A.

Neutral spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, credit.

Sour spots: Securitization, ECM, FX, rates, cash equities, equity derivatives, prime services.

Goldman Sachs bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: ECM, FX, rates, credit, commodities, cash equities.

Neutral spots: Equity derivatives.

Sour spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitisation, M&A, prime services.

HSBC bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: DCM loans.

Neutral spots: FX, prime services.

Sour spots: DCM bonds, securitisation, ECM, M&A, rates, credit, commodities, cash equities, equity derivatives.

J.P. Morgan bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: Commodities, cash equities.

Neutral spots: ECM, M&A, FX, rates, credit

Sour spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitisation, equity derivatives

Morgan Stanley bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: DCM loans, ECM, prime services.

Neutral spots: M&A, FX, commodities, cash equities.

Sour spots: DCM bonds, rates, credit, equity derivatives.

RBC bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: DCM bonds, securitisation, rates, credit, commodities.

Neutral spots: DCM loans

Sour spots:  ECM, M&A, cash equities, FX, equity derivatives, prime services.

RBS bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: DCM bonds, securitisation.

Neutral spots: -

Sour spots: DCM loans, FX, rates, credit

SocGen bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: ECM, M&A

Neutral spots: DCM bonds, securitisation, rates

Sour spots: FX, credit, commodities, cash equities, equity derivatives, prime services.

Standard Chartered bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, rates.

Neutral spots: Commodities.

Sour spots: Securisation, M&A, FX, credit, prime services.

UBS bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: Securitisation, M&A, FX, prime services.

Neutral spots: Commodities, cash equities, equity derivatives.

Sour spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, advisory.

Wells Fargo bonus predictions 2018

Sweet spots: Credit, cash equities, equity derivatives, prime services.

Neutral spots: DCM bonds, DCM loans, securitisation, FX, commodities.

Sour spots: ECM, M&A, rates.

Top performing business areas overall:

Lastly, as the chart below (also based upon Tricumen research) shows, the highest operating revenue per head in the first nine months of 2018 was generated in ECM. ECM also experienced one of the biggest increases in operating revenue per head in the first nine months of this year. If you work for an ECM division which also outperformed (Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, SocGen) and you don't get paid, you could therefore start 2019 in a state of disgruntlement.

Have a confidential story, tip, or comment you’d like to share? Contact: sbutcher@efinancialcareers.com in the first instance. Whatsapp/Signal/Telegram also available.

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