European investment banks are not going quietly. They're hiring (witness Credit Suisse's recruitment of Guy Dunning from Deutsche Bank as head of sales trading for EMEA and Deutsche's addition of Peter Selman from Goldman Sachs). They're growing (take BNP Paribas' 5% CAGR target in its markets business until 2020) and they're taking more risk (eg. Tim Throsby at Barclays).
Somehow, however, things aren't working out.
Deutsche Banks' own banking analysts have highlighted the problem. As the charts below show, European banks are losing market share, and it's been going on for a while.
As the charts below show, European banks actually recovered a tiny bit of lost ground this year in FICC trading, but they're still 900 basis points below where they were eight years ago. In equities trading, they've ceded even more share to U.S. banks. In IBD the Europeans have squandered the gains they made in 2012 and 2013.
After a year of heavy recruiting at Barclays, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank itself, 2018 could mark a turning point for European investment banks' fortunes. However, Deutsche's charts illustrate the extent of the reversal required. Joining a European bank looks like a risk: it's the U.S. houses that have the wind in their tail.
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