J.P. Morgan's banking analysts have issued a new note updating their predictions on performance by bank and sector for 2016. There, they suggest there is only one place to be in 2016: fixed income trading at a U.S. bank.
All else is dirge.
You can see J.P. Morgan's latest predictions for 2016 by bank and by division below.
If J.P. Morgan's right, only U.S. firms' fixed income operations and investment banking divisions (IBD) will experience revenue growth this year. European banks are expected to see year-on-year revenue declines in every business area on average - although there should be bright spots in fixed income trading at BNP Paribas at SocGen.
How can this be? J.P. Morgan's analysts point to the more favourable business mix at U.S. firms. U.S. banks are more strongly geared to U.S. rates and credit markets, and these have had some of the highest activity so far this year.