What proportion of London banking jobs are at risk from Brexit? Handlesblatt claims 50% of Goldman Sachs’ 6,000 London banking jobs could migrate, but Goldman is denying this. Overall banks’ stated figures put the displacement closer to 22%.
For the moment, J.P. Morgan seems most eager to shunt jobs overseas. At Davos today, Jamie Dimon today reaffirmed his June threat to move 4,000 jobs or more out of the UK because of Brexit – 25%+ of the bank’s total in the country. “It looks like there will be more job movement than we hoped for,” Dimon told Bloomberg, adding: “.. it is not a threat — it is just a fact that we will have to accommodate the new requirements.”
UBS seems to have moved in the opposite direction. CEO Sergio Ermotti said in September that the bank could move 1,500 jobs or 30% of its UK total overseas as a result Brexit. At Davos this week, UBS Chairman Axel Weber downgraded this to 1,000 jobs, 20% of the total, although Ermotti said there won’t be clarity on the number until the end of 2017.
This puts UBS on a par with HSBC, which is also threatening to move 1,000 of its London jobs elsewhere (Paris).
If other banks come out with similar plans, the job Brexit-related job losses in London could be higher than expected. In October, consulting firm Oliver Wyman said 13% of jobs across trading, investment banking, asset management, market infrastructure, and insurance could go. That’s starting to look like an underestimate – particularly if Handlesblatt’s worst case Goldman Sachs contingency plan turns out to be true.