If you're optimistic, 2015 is going to be a great year for finding a new finance job. If you're pessimistic, it will be the year that the eurozone collapses, that the election hikes political risk in the UK, and that Russia defaults on its debt.
Realistically, it's too early to make a call either way. But so far, at least, there hasn't been much in the way of recruitment in London. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) reveals that only one major investment bank has registered a new member of staff in 2015.
That bank is Morgan Stanley. The new addition is: Teo Gianinazzi, an Italian graduate who was interning in the bank's markets division before being registered as a first-year analyst on January 1.
A couple of other banks registered new staff on new year's eve. BNP Paribas added Daniel Cohen, a former associate in credit trading at BNP Paribas. JPMorgan registered David Soustiel, a former associate director in the private wealth business at UBS.
Quiet start to the year? Maybe. When we ran the same checks this time last year, major banks in London had already made five hires. This year, Gianinazzi is unique. He's also indicative of the new way in which US investment banks hire graduates - instead of the traditional route of 'summer internship in the second year of university followed by a permanent offer upon graduating', it's becoming increasingly common for banks to offer internships to students after they've graduated, and to convert them immediately into full-time hires if they perform well in the role.