If you began working in banking less than six years ago, you may be about to get a baptism of fire. At least, this is the case if you have anything to do with emerging markets.
Bloomberg spoke to Stephen Jen, a 48 year-old hedge fund manager who began a job in Hong Kong as JPMorgan’s exchange rate strategist in January 1997. Seven months later, Jen was working in the eye of a storm as the currencies of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines and then Russia successively crashed. Had hedge fund Long Term Capital Management not been bailed out in September 1998, the chain reaction could have caused a global financial crisis.
Jen is reportedly worried that today’s naive young analysts are too fresh-faced to remember the Asian financial crisis. Worse, he says many have cut their teeth in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) era when growth was a one-way bet. They’re about to get a rude awakening. “My long-standing view on EM currencies is that they could melt down because there has simply been way too much cumulative capital flows,” Jen says. Holidays on the trading floor are already being cancelled. This Christmas, and the coming New Year, could be interesting ones.
Separately, Hector Sants is back. And he looks….fresher than before. The Financial Times is just one of the papers reporting on Sants’ return as vice chairman of Oliver Wyman, the UK management consultancy firm with a focus on banks. Sants left Barclays in October 2013, suffering from stress. In the intervening months, he’s been living in Oxfordshire and working as chairman of the Archbishop of Canterbury’s taskforce on promoting responsible savings and credit. We suspect he’s also been getting a lot of sleep – he looks a lot more youthful than he did last year.
Deutsche Bank just appointed Ahmet Arinc head of global foreign exchange. He already oversees emerging markets debt and could be a very busy man. (Bloomberg)
Fixed income sales and trading revenues at Jefferies fell 73% in the fourth quarter. (Bloomberg)
Bank of America just appointed Bernard Mensah and James DeMare to be the co-heads of global fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading. Mensah is in London. DeMare is in New York. (WSJ)
David Soanes is becoming UK country head for UBS. Andrea Orcel is becoming chief executive of the UK arm for regulatory reasons. (Reuters)
And the top European university for getting into Morgan Stanley is…..The London School of Economics. (BusinessInsider)
Exchange traded funds are the place to be. (Reuters)
You don’t want to work in Chinese M&A – it’s been a bumper year, but fees have been squeezed. (WSJ)
Traders deny stealing code: “I did not send myself anything. I am developing my own trading system, which is written in C# as opposed to the Java used by Flow Traders. I had a project called ‘Turtle,’ but have started something new called ‘Alpha.’ I spoke with a company in China to start trading there, but decided not to.” (Bloomberg)
Why the $72m stock trader rumour was always going to be stupid. (Time)
Just finished CFA Level I? Here’s how to plan for CFA Level II. (300Hours)