If you lose your London-based investment banking job now, will you find a new one? That partly depends upon your line of expertise: structured credit and equity derivatives traders are going to struggle, 'regulatory advisory' and 'finance change' professionals are not.
Your chances of re-employment also depend upon the bank you were last working for. And, whichever bank you were working for last, they are not high.
We looked at data from the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) Register, filtered by IMAS, the finance-focused M&A boutique. This shows all registered individuals leaving named finance firms within particular time periods, without revealing the reason for their departure.
The figures are stark.
Among registered individuals who left leading investment banks in London in the three months between February and April 2015, just 19% to 38% have found new jobs at other registered firms in London: the remaining 81% to 62% are still not working in London finance firms.
Re-employment rates are predictably worse for anyone who left their banking job in the three months to the end of December 2015. Only 9% of Morgan Stanley's ex-employees (which include the fixed income traders it laid off) who left during this period have already found roles elsewhere, and just 16% of people leaving Barclays Investment Bank have. The exception is UBS, where a remarkable 55% of registered employees who left during the three months to December are now registered with other firms.
Unsurprisingly, re-employment rates are most miserable of all for anyone who left their jobs in the three months from December 2015 to February 2016 inclusive. Just 4% of Barclays Investment Bank's staff who exited during this period have found new roles already and just 5% of BAML's have. As ever, there is an exception: 34% of people exiting J.P. Morgan Securities during this period already have jobs elsewhere.
The moral of the story? Be thankful for the banking job you have..