Back to 2003? Are Goldman jobs most at risk?

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This time last year, the talk was of a return to revenue and headcount levels last seen in 2005. However, Morgan Stanley analysts now predict that 2009 revenue levels will be more akin to those of 2003. If banks resize accordingly, our analysis below suggests the axe may fall hardest at Goldman Sachs.

1. Goldman Sachs

4Q 2003 headcount: 19,478

4Q 2005 headcount: 22,425

4Q 2008 headcount: 30,067

Announced redundancies: 10% announced in October 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 7,582, 25%

2. Merrill Lynch (RIP)

4Q 2003 headcount: 48,100

4Q 2005 headcount: 54,600

3Q 2008 headcount: 60,900

Announced redundancies: Before ML was subsumed into BofA, thousands of job cuts were announced in IT, operations and corporate functions in October. In December, Bank of America announced 35,000 job cuts over three years at the combined entity. Charlie Gasparino predicts 10,000 will go from the investment bank.

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 12,800, 21% (based on Q308 headcount)

3. Citigroup

4Q 2003 headcount: 275,000

4Q 2005 headcount: 297,000

4Q 2008 headcount: 352,000

Announced redundancies: 50,000 job cuts announced in November 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 27,000, 10%

4. UBS (investment bank only)

4Q 2003 headcount: 15,500

4Q 2005 headcount: 18,582

3Q 2008 headcount: 18,901

Announced redundancies: 10% announced in November 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 1,510, 8%

5. Deutsche Bank (corporate banking and securities only)

4Q 2003 headcount: 9,915

4Q 2005 headcount: 9,293

3Q 2008 headcount: 11,167

Announced redundancies: 900 trading jobs cut in November.

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 352, 4%

6. Credit Suisse (investment bank only)

4Q 2003 headcount: 18,341

4Q 2005 headcount: 18,809

3Q 2008 headcount: 21,300

Announced redundancies: Investment banking headcount cuts of 17% announced in December.

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: None

7. Morgan Stanley

4Q 2003 headcount: 51,196

4Q 2005 headcount: 53,218

4Q 2008 headcount: 46,964

Announced redundancies: 10% announced in November 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: None

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