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Back to 2003? Are Goldman jobs most at risk?

This time last year, the talk was of a return to revenue and headcount levels last seen in 2005. However, Morgan Stanley analysts now predict that 2009 revenue levels will be more akin to those of 2003. If banks resize accordingly, our analysis below suggests the axe may fall hardest at Goldman Sachs.

1. Goldman Sachs

4Q 2003 headcount: 19,478

4Q 2005 headcount: 22,425

4Q 2008 headcount: 30,067

Announced redundancies: 10% announced in October 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 7,582, 25%

2. Merrill Lynch (RIP)

4Q 2003 headcount: 48,100

4Q 2005 headcount: 54,600

3Q 2008 headcount: 60,900

Announced redundancies: Before ML was subsumed into BofA, thousands of job cuts were announced in IT, operations and corporate functions in October. In December, Bank of America announced 35,000 job cuts over three years at the combined entity. Charlie Gasparino predicts 10,000 will go from the investment bank.

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 12,800, 21% (based on Q308 headcount)

3. Citigroup

4Q 2003 headcount: 275,000

4Q 2005 headcount: 297,000

4Q 2008 headcount: 352,000

Announced redundancies: 50,000 job cuts announced in November 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 27,000, 10%

4. UBS (investment bank only)

4Q 2003 headcount: 15,500

4Q 2005 headcount: 18,582

3Q 2008 headcount: 18,901

Announced redundancies: 10% announced in November 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 1,510, 8%

5. Deutsche Bank (corporate banking and securities only)

4Q 2003 headcount: 9,915

4Q 2005 headcount: 9,293

3Q 2008 headcount: 11,167

Announced redundancies: 900 trading jobs cut in November.

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: 352, 4%

6. Credit Suisse (investment bank only)

4Q 2003 headcount: 18,341

4Q 2005 headcount: 18,809

3Q 2008 headcount: 21,300

Announced redundancies: Investment banking headcount cuts of 17% announced in December.

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: None

7. Morgan Stanley

4Q 2003 headcount: 51,196

4Q 2005 headcount: 53,218

4Q 2008 headcount: 46,964

Announced redundancies: 10% announced in November 2008

Additional cuts required for a reversion to 2003 headcount levels: None

Comments (14)

Comments
  1. UNREADABLE TYPEFACE PRESENTED HERE. PLEASE ALLOW LARGER TYPE. THIS IS EMBARRASSING..NO OTHER SITE HAS THESE ISSUES. I DO NOTE THAT IN CAPS I CAN READ WHAT I AM TYPING.THAT WOULD SUFFICE..WINK, WINK, NOD, NOD

    ANTHONY COPPOLINO Reply
     
  2. Hi Anthony,

    If you have a mouse with a wheel you should be able to increase the size of the text by clicking on the screen and turning the wheel around. Let me know if this works.

    Sarah, Editor, eFinancialCareers Reply
     
  3. Anthony, I can assure you the typeface is perfectly readable here. I think you may have accidentally zoomed out whilst on this site at some point and everytime you return your browser remembers the settings. To adjust, simply press ‘control +’, or go into ‘view’ and ‘zoom’….

    Paul, eFinancialCareers Reply
     
  4. Anthony – I’ll bet that’s the last time you write in such a hurry!

  5. Can we please stick to factual comments about the article. If you don’t have anything to say then don’t. This nincompoop clearly doesn’t know the zoom function within a browser! Wonder how he will even understand the nature of the article itself hihi

  6. anthony, ur lack of technical knowledge portrays you to be a back office monkey…i bet u, ur head of HR

  7. Sounds like this Anthony bloke has been running the Risk function at one of the aforementioned organisations.

    God help us.

  8. Please compare apples to apples… These employment figures are nt adjusted for discontinued or acquired businesses… The analysis is not that easy.

  9. Anon – it’s intended as a guide more than anything else. With the exception of Citigroup’s 2007 acquisition of Egg and Morgan Stanley’s 2007 sale of Discover (both fairly large admittedly) I don’t think any of these institutions made enormous purchases during this period – correct me if I’m wrong. Figures for JPMorgan weren’t included due to the complexity of splitting out headcount additions from its various purchases.

    Sarah, Editor. eFinancialCareers Reply
     
  10. anon – come on you don’t really need the ‘like for like’ adjustments to see the obvious point being made here…..

  11. Sarah, do you have similar data for Lehman Brothers/Nomura? Thanks

  12. Algamar – Sorry, I don’t. I’m not sure whether Nomura break out headcount figures for their securities unit (although I have to confess that I haven’t looked) . It would be difficult to run a realistic calculation for Lehman – now that it’s been sold to Nomura and Barclays, it would mean working out how many staff it added in the US and Europe over the past few years + I don’t imagine this information is available.

    Sarah, Editor, eFinancialCareers Reply
     
  13. looks luike it is still somewhat rough out there.. thought the worst is pretty much over and we finally go back to business..

    hanging in there Reply
     
  14. Anthony – the typeface is perfectly acceptable but your IT skills clearly are not !

    The bottom line is 2009 (whether there is a like for like comparison or not) will be a rocky ride for the above mentioned institutions and the other minnows around them.

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