Who'll still be here in 2010?

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Dresdner Kleinwort bankers may be quaking in their Church's, but some people can still count on a relatively secure future. And they are...

Finance and risk professionals

While everyone was on the beach last month, Financial Services Authority chief exec Hector Sants called for banks not to slash too many middle and back office staff because "Firms' valuation processes and controls have become increasingly stretched and in some cases have proven to be materially flawed or inadequate." (Independent)

Finance and risk professionals at SocGen

Thanks to Jérôme Kerviel, SocGen is looking to build up big time in these areas. Last week, it announced plans to add 20,000 staff this year. However, SG's only immediate commitment to the investment bank appears to be to add 2,000 bankers in France, of whom the FT says 40% will be recent graduates. This leaves only 1,200 experienced hires, almost all of whom will be for the middle and back office. Simultaneous redundancies in these areas don't look likely.

Distressed debt professionals

Defaults are rising. According to Moody's, they rose from 2.1% to 2.5% globally between June and July. Credit Suisse researchers point out that the last time this happened was in 2003. Moody's predicts defaults will rise to 4.8% by the end of this year.

Energy M&A bankers in Europe

M&A may be going down the pan, but energy M&A isn't. According to Thomson Financial, energy and power was the second most active sector for M&A globally in Q2 (behind consumer staples). One senior energy specialist at a boutique in London says they're "inundated" with work.

Merrill bankers in London

Ever since it emerged that Merrill Lynch had racked up enough losses in the UK to avoid paying tax here for 60 years (FT), the position of staff in its London business has looked slightly less precarious. With UK operations now tax free, it makes a whole lot more sense to dump staff elsewhere in the world.

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