Asian bankers account for a growing proportion of banks' profits. But they are still short-changed at bonus time.
This year, the situation looks set to be worse than ever. Most US banks have lost packets through the US sub-prime crisis, meaning profitable local bankers are in danger of subsidising their struggling American colleagues.
Gary Lai, manager of front-office banking at recruiter Robert Walters Singapore, says Hong Kong and Singapore bankers employed at US and European houses are already prepared for the fact that their bonuses will be negatively affected as a result of the sub-prime fallout. He predicts that many will look for jobs in the New Year as a result.
But is the situation really this dire? A recent study by international search firm Options Group found Asian bonuses are likely to rise by up to 5% this year. By comparison, payouts in the US and Europe are predicted to fall 10-15% and 5-10% respectively.
There are rumours that Asian bonus pools have been ring-fenced and won't be reallocated to subsidise struggling divisions elsewhere. Nader Farahati, director at consultancy Oliver Wyman, told Financial News recently that Asian bonuses will not be reallocated.
John Jessen, the Singapore-based group CEO of headhunter Smith & Jessen, also doubts that Asian bankers will have to subsidise colleagues in the US and Europe.
Jessen says banks want to protect assets where they make the most money: "Asia is in such a build-out mode that no-one wants to let their competition leave them behind." He expects most hiring investments to flow eastwards in 2008, with trading floors in India set to double or even quadruple in size over the next two to three years.
The sentiments of bankers in other emerging Asian economies such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia also remain positive, says Lai: "The general consensus seems to suggest that their bonuses will be healthier than previous years, as many of these economies started off from a low base and are experiencing strong domestic growth."