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Recession or no recession?

Will Australia’s economy be hit for six next year, or will we block out the recession? And what does all the recent discussion of recession mean for the finance sector and the jobs market?

Finance minister Lindsay Tanner is keeping upbeat. He reckons interest rate cuts, combined with increased government spending and a relatively weak Aussie dollar, will encourage exports and stimulate the economy.

Does Tanner’s talk ring true for you? Or is more economic and employment anguish heading our way?

The doom merchants may well have a point. Economic growth was marginal in the September quarter, which some economists believe is a sign that recession will arrive in the first half of 2009.

Will a domestic recession deal a killer blow to a banking-jobs market already reeling from the global financial crisis?

Pain or gain in 2009? Give us your thoughts below.

Comments (7)

  1. Regardless of whether the wider economy is technically in recession or not next year, one thing remains certain: there will be fewer jobs for bankers.

  2. Who cares – do an MBA for a couple of years and then come back when it’s all over.

  3. Better to be here than stick in London. At least we can get a job in mining if everything else is tanking

  4. Zola, in case you missed it the mining industry is absolutely tanking right now. Mining shares are down the most of any sector and massive lay offs are just getting off the ground in response.

    Australia is in for a very bad 2009 IMO. It’s lagging at the moment, but it will catch up in a dramatic fashion.

  5. Are you scared for your future? Pray. Believe. Stay positive.

    Change its a good thing. Look at other countries. We are in the best situation and location:)

  6. “we are in the best situation and location”

    Only in the case of an absolute catastrophe where each nation is forced to fend for and feed itself.

    Otherwise no – we are just at a different point on the global consuming – manufacturing – raw materials trade cycle. As Miner puts it, this is simply a lag. This lag will could put us in a worse position than the west/asia next yr and keep us there for longer.

    There will be growing protectionism – north america, the eu and asia can close ranks to protect their own economies. What can we do?

    The huge debt/credit bubbles here have yet to burst – unlike the rest of the world. There is a reason the ASX is off more from its highs than any other diversified major western index. We have a huge problem that is being made worse by the head-in-the-sand attitude here.

  7. The ASX is hit the worst as we have been hit by collapsing commodity prices and the dollar has declined sharply too. The decline in the dollar on its own would put any international investor off holding Aussie securities. We might be one of last to go in to recession but at least other economies will be heading out of recession sooner and give our exports a boost.

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