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Why banking jobs won’t come back until June 2017: a little chart

Banking jobs recovery

Just a little longer in the waiting room...

If you’re gearing up to find yourself a new job in the second half of 2016, then you might want to avert your eyes from the chart below, produced by analysts at Bernstein Research. If their chart is right, you could be 12 months ahead of time…

As the analysts point out, downturns in banking typically last anything from seven to ten quarters. The current downturn begun in the first quarter of 2015, meaning it could be the middle of next year before investment banking revenues (and front office hiring) rebounds.

On the other hand, if the current cycle only lasts seven quarters, banking revenues could return to growth in the final three months of 2016. So, maybe those recruiters who are calling a rebound from September onward are right after all…

The downturn has only just begun…

Bernstein banking chart

Photo credit: waiting room by Dylan is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

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