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The post-crisis world: how shrunken revenues have been reallocated

For anyone wondering what’s different since the lost Eden of early 2007 and the demise of Lehman, analysts at Nomura have produced some figures tracking ‘clean’ revenue changes bank by bank, business by business.

In equities, they show that the French banks have clearly been the losers. Between the first quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2010, both BNP and SocGen suffered a 67% reduction in equities sales and trading revenues. At Credit Suisse, the reduction was merely 20%.

Percentage change in equities sales and trading revenues (clean), 1Q07-2Q10

BNP: -67%

SG: -67%

DBK: -65%

GS: -61%

CITI: -58%

UBS: -55%

JPM: -46%

MS: -45%

CS: -20%

By comparison, in fixed income, currencies and commodities, big French banks are clearly the winners. FICC revenues at Morgan Stanley and UBS are down more than 40%, but at SocGen and BNP they’ve increased 8% and 47% respectively. JPMorgan’s also achieved a 22% FICC revenue rise.

Percentage change in FICC revenues (clean), 1Q07-2Q10

MS: -46%

UBS: -40%

CS: -39%

DBK: -29%

CITI: -22%

GS: -13%

SG: 8%

JPM: 22%

BNP: 47%

In M&A and underwriting, UBS and Citi both lost out big time over the period, while Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have done comparatively well.

Percentage change in investment banking revenues (clean), 1Q07-2Q10

UBS: -64%

CITI: -62%

GS: -47%

CS: -36%

DBK: -32%

JPM: -19%

MS: -14%

Nomura’s figures from 2007 don’t cover banks which changed beyond recognition over the period (BarCap, BofA Merrill, RBS, Nomura itself). Nor do they cover HSBC, one of the big winners from the crisis. Financial News points out that despite acquiring parts of Lehman’s European business, Nomura’s wholesale banking revenues have fallen 10% since 2007.

They do, however, provide clean figures for the performance of rival banks since the first quarter of 2009. These show BarCap manifestly failing to achieve its ambitions in IBD, where it’s suffered a 16% reduction in revenues, vs an average increase of 24%.

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