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Bonuses for 2015, five charts from Morgan Stanley suggesting who will and won’t get them

Analysts at Morgan Stanley have just issued their prognosis about banks’ performance by sector for the final quarter of 2015 and the year as a whole. With bonuses only months away, performance in the three months to December is likely to weigh heavily on pay expectations.

Based on Morgan Stanley’s charts, here’s who should be optimistic about pay for 2015. And here’s who shouldn’t.

US equities salespeople and traders can expect to get paid. Broadly, European IBD people can’t

Morgan Stanley bonuses 1

Source: Morgan Stanley

Bank of America’s traders will expect to get paid after an excellent fourth quarter. Traders at Deutsche and SocGen could be disappointed

Morgan Stanley bonuses 2

Source: Morgan Stanley

ECM revenues are likely to pick up in the fourth quarter – unless you’re at Goldman Sachs or J.P. Morgan. After a poor year, ECM bonuses are likely to be disappointing nonetheless

ECM bankers paid

Source: Morgan Stanley

DCM revenues have been dire all year and are expected to remain so in the fourth quarter. Deutsche DCM bankers can probably expect particularly poor bonuses this year

DCM bankers pay

Source: Morgan Stanley

 

M&A bankers everywhere will be disappointed if they’re not rewarded for their strong performance in the fourth quarter, but this will especially be the case at Credit Suisse

M&A bankers will be expecting to get paid

Source: Morgan Stanley

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