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Deutsche and JPM both say everything’s absolutely fine, unless you happen to work here…

Dark clouds and doom are coming, says Jean Pierre Mustier

Dark clouds and doom are coming, says Jean Pierre Mustier

If you work in banking and are feeling a tiny bit worried about the way things have been going, then analysts at Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan are here to cheer you up – unless, that is, you have the misfortune to work in the fixed income currencies and commodities (FICC) business at a European bank.

Yesterday, Deutsche’s analysts issued a note contemplating banks’ performance in the third quarter and September. Q3 was slow, said Deutsche – but not irredeemable. Equities and advisory revenues may actually have increased in the three months from July to September.

The European banking analysts at JPMorgan are equally optimistic. Today they issued a note containing the following chart:

JPMorgan Q3 a

In other words, JPM analysts say 2013 is turning out rather well in equities sales and trading, very nicely in capital markets and advisory (IBD), but very badly in FICC. Analysts at Deutsche Bank agree. They say FICC businesses are especially constrained at European banks, which are losing market share.

For the concerned, analysts at JPMorgan provide the following helpful FICC revenue projections, by bank, until 2015. FICC professionals at Barclays, BNP and Deutsche and Morgan Stanley all look a little vulnerable.

JPMorgan FICC projections

In equities and IBD, meanwhile, everything is absolutely fine – unless you work at Goldman Sachs in equities or at Barclays in IBD. JPMorgan’s analyst predict revenue falls at both these businesses this year. Again, the full projections are below.

JPMorgan equities projections

JPMorgan FICC projections

Lastly, we’d like to offer a word of caution: rising revenues don’t always equate with job security. JPMorgan’s analysts are predicting an 11% increase in equities revenues at Credit Suisse this year. Only last week Credit Suisse announced redundancies in its equities sales and trading business.

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