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Goldman Sachs has named 115 new partners and seems set to make a killing in the final quarter. But only a select few are likely to see the strong results feed into their bonuses.

Goldman is expected to book a profit of around $1 billionn on its investment in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), which is set to float on the Hong Kong stock exchange tomorrow. It’s also likely to earn around $600 million in additional revenue from the initial sale of shares in a series of Japanese golf courses.

As a result, Guy Moszkowski, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, predicts profits at Goldman could rise over 60 percent, to $9.1billlion.

If compensation increases proportionately, Goldman employees could be in for a bumper year. Last year, the bank paid its average staff member $521,000. All things being equal, this year’s predicted profits suggest an average $834,000 payout.

However, all things are not equal. While payouts will be good, Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk Ziegel & Co., predicts beneficiaries of this quarter’s windfall will be relatively few. “There is no doubt that people at Goldman are going to make a lot of money this year,” he tells us. “But that’s on the back of record earnings in the first six months.”

Bove says only partners and people directly involved in the successful deals are likely to see any upside from the fourth quarter's profits: “The elite core of partners will share in the increased bonus pool. Whoever was astute enough to make the ICBC investment will be compensated extraordinarily well. And the distressed debt group that invested in the golf courses will certainly be compensated handsomely."

But will these specific investments benefit most people in the firm? Bove says: "Unlike higher profits in equities or investment banking, the answer is no.”