US
Is the Downturn Past its Midpoint? Or Only Beginning?
Apr 9 2008
Depending which manifestation you look at, the credit crunch has raged anywhere from three to 18 months. Is the tide about to turn?
Housing has been correcting for more than a year. Financial markets began adjusting to changed circumstances roughly nine months ago. Even the broad U.S. economy has already endured three or four months of recession, according to some economists. And recent events give little sign of an end in sight.
"It's always darkest before the dawn" is a pop cliché, not an analytical tool. Still, in view of the above timeline, it's reasonable to consider whether the downturn has completed at least half of its likely time span.
Do you believe it has? And, whether optimistic or pessimistic, does your estimate of where we are in the cycle influence your career plans in any way? Post your thoughts below.
....this is only the beginning. This will be a consumer led downturn...whereby companies that have long-term financing and strong balance sheets will get by. High gas, heating oil, gasoline, food costs = less purchasing power. Through in job losses, insecure consumers, restrictive bank lending = recession that runs through 2008.
Polar bear 24 Apr 2008
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