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• ....this is only the beginning.  This will be a consumer led downturn...whereby companies that have long-term financing and strong balance sheets will get by.  High gas, heating oil, gasoline, food costs = less purchasing power.  Through in job losses, insecure consumers, restrictive bank lending = recession that runs through 2008.

  Polar bear 24 Apr 2008

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• I agree with the previous respondent about high fuel prices putting undue stress on the consumer. But, I would say that the crisis is nearing its mid-point and not in the beginning because the markets have adjusted for inflation and now the burden has been passed back onto the consumer through rising interest rates and home prices.
  
  I feel the key to stabilizing our economy is to reset absurd fuel prices.

  Nhalligan1 29 Apr 2008

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• Polar bear hit the nail on the head. However, what he forgot to mention is that we are only one hurricane or mid-eastern violence outbreak away or even worse a dollar correction, before recession really hits. Exports are keeping us alive right now. Reseting fuel prices to an artificial level will only make things worse in the long run. $100 per/barrel oil is here to stay. diversifying our energy sources is the only long term answer.

  mengel12 01 May 2008

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• Polar bear is right.  We're finally going to see the recession we should have seen in 2002 but didn't because the housing bubble artificially propped consumer spending up.  I don't see another source of income or borrowing that can save consumer spending this time.  We're finally going to see the inevitable restructuring of consumer balance sheets back to where they should be.  In the mean time, thats going to have quite an impact on the markets.  however, I don't see the stock market really getting hit too bad because its already fairly valued if not undervalued.  I think the worst of the job layoffs will continue to be fixed income while equity and buyside jobs will hold up ok.  All the overhiring was done in fixed income anyway.  There's still demand for equity analysts and portfolio managers.

  Not too scared 06 May 2008

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• As terrible the thought is, $100 per/barrel is here.... for now. An article in the Wall Street Journal reported recently that commodity prices have been some what inflated by investors looking for alternatives to weakening stocks. If the stocks build on their recent gains a wave of selling could send commodity prices tumbling.

  Nhalligan1 07 May 2008

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• Recession???I think the National Bureau of Economic Research will say otherwise. And even though the current economy has been battered by the housing crisis and rising energy prices the economy still GREW at .6% and that's still at least $540 billion on top of what was spent last quarter. If Investors could stop inflating the Commodity indexes we might see lower prices at the pump.

  Nhalligan1 08 May 2008

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• The bull market is over... expect 25% job cuts by year-end 2008 with another 25% in first half 2009.  With 50% fall in M&A, no LBOs, no IPOs, no new mortgages, no structured products, and massive losses on the old stuff, the future is decidedly bleak.  With no revenue stream there is no need for these massive teams sitting around the bank doing nothing.

  johns 08 May 2008

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• This is just the begining, Alt-A, Option Arms(the next MAJOR time bomb), CDS,CDO, and housing prices that will continue to decline to '03 prices or lower will destroy the balance sheets of Banks, IB's, Hedge Funds and anyone long US equities. Fed ex after the close on Friday should be a loud and clear warning that things are about to get fugly.

  David G 11 May 2008

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• The economy is soft.  However, it is not as bad as the media portrays.  I think there are many undervalued stocks.  By the end of the year, many stocks  will be up. 
  
  I am not bullish on large bank stocks.  However, I was stock screening on May 23, 2008.  I seen many regional banks 1-3 billion market cap registering bullish trends.  What's up with that?
  
  Jason

  Jason 25 May 2008

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• in my opinion, the economic is in downturn for sure, and it will continue long enough until the facts of subprime market problem become clear, the food inflation across the world get soloved, the rising oil price and the other commodity price have a nice landing... after all these, the worlds economy will be resharped, follwoing strong growth from the emerging market and steady reform in the developed  western regions. during this time, the finanical sectoer will remain unstable with low revenue. the job they need to really get on with are some restructure of their business model and the risk models. ( e.g a better way to turly valuate risky loan or mortagage products), at same time, waiting for the government's new regulation.
  
  overall, the world 's main economy is resturcturing with many industries facing new cost of material and lidiquidy problem. thing could be go better in 2010, then new problem comes.

  shiweizheng 29 May 2008

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