As we mentioned yesterday, the fact that Goldman Sachs will no longer set the bar on bonuses, to say nothing of increased regulation and the negative PR that will result from big cash payouts, mean anyone expecting a larger than average bonus this year may be deluded. That doesn’t mean there aren’t deluded people about.

A survey of 200 City ‘financial services professionals’ by recruiters Morgan McKinley found nearly 40% of them expect this year’s bonus to be bigger than last year’s. Another 40% expect it to be the same.

Morgan McKinley doesn’t break out expectations for cash bonuses. This is a shame. The likelihood is that even if this year’s headline numbers match or exceed last year’s, cash bonuses in the front office will fall and the remainder will be deferred for longer. Goldman may also make donations to cats’ homes obligatory.

It’s worth bearing in mind, however, that as a back and middle office recruiter, many of those surveyed by Morgan McKinley are likely to be working in risk/product control/settlements/desk support roles. After a good year, there’s a possibility that cash payouts for this contingent will actually increase: comparatively few (only 30%) say their compensation packages have been restructured.

Separately, the trend regarding jobs seems to have taken a depressing turn: new job openings fell 8% during September according to Morgan McKinley. Morgan McKinley is, however, at pains to point out that the number of new jobs coming onto the market in September was the second highest for the year so far.