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Good news: 55% of financial services firms are intending to pay bonuses this year. Not such good news: they’ll probably be a maximum of 10% of your salary.

A new bonus expectations survey by recruiters Morgan McKinley paints a picture of relative optimism when it comes to this year’s payouts. Nearly 30% of respondents said that they weren’t intending on paying year-end bonuses, 15% were uncertain, which means that some 55% were set to pay some sort of variable compensation this year.

Before any members of Joe Public start foaming at the mouth in anger, this is a far cry away from the days of excess associated with Ireland’s banks in the five years leading up to 2008.

The largest proportion of financial services companies who responded (37%) intend paying just 1-5% of base salaries, while only 2% of those surveyed intend to pay more than 26% of pay for variable remuneration. 29% plan on paying 6-10%, while 12% will pay 11-15% of basic salaries.

The larger bonuses have been earmarked for more senior employees, suggests Morgan McKinley.

“For many companies, these bonus payments are likely to be gestures of goodwill towards their employees, many of whom would not have received pay increases or bonuses for three or more years,” says Karen O’Flaherty, chief operations officer at Morgan McKinley.

Within Irish banks, both headhunters and the institutions themselves insist that neither pay rises nor bonuses are on the table and that firms are merely rewarding their employees with promotions, extra benefits or work-life balance incentives.

So, where are you most likely to be offered a bonus this year? The simple answer appears to be within the relatively buoyant funds industry.

“Most funds companies are paying bonuses this year, some suspended these in 2009-10, but the vast majority of firms – around 70-80% – are set to pay them again this year,” says one hiring manager in a large fund house in Dublin.  ”Most payments are pretty modest; around 10-15% of salary.”