Rumour has it that the Indian IT industry is suffering from a skills crisis. But this is just wishful thinking, according to an independent outsourcing expert.

‘I’ve not detected a drop in real numbers. India has a large population growth, a very young population and rapidly expanding middle class,’ said Duncan Aitchison, managing director international at sourcing advisory firm TPI.

In a New York Times article last month, Indian trade group Nasscom predicted a shortfall of 500,000 professionals in the technology sector by 2010 and pointed to problems with rising salaries and falling graduate quality.

This may sound like good news if you’re a banking technologist living in fear that jobs are about to be offshored. But Aitchison tells us it’s had little impact on the banking industry and outsourcing’s popularity is still very much in the ascendant. “In investment banking, the move offshore is almost ubiquitous,” he says.

India’s unusual demographics, with half its population under 25, creates a large pool of graduates able to satisfy the raging thirst for fresh computing talent. Competition becomes much more fierce for more experienced staff, but this is mitigated by people returning to India after working abroad.

Aitchison is not a lone dissenting voice. Earlier this year, a report from outsourcing advisory firm Everest suggested India has at least another 30 years labour arbitrage advantage over the UK.