If you think you have the slightest idea what you might get paid as a bonus this year, take a look at the chart below.

And now think again.

The chart’s derived from a new study by Mercer Oliver Wyman and the IIF, which shows that bonus calculations have become incredibly complex. Apparently they now involve a board level remuneration committee, a group level compensation committee, a CIB level compensation committee (suggesting their model may be a French bank), management, business units heads, divisional heads, human resources, finance, risk and HR.

As the Financial Times points out, the study also reveals the near total demise of the multi-year guaranteed bonus, which now accounts for a mere 1.5% of the bonus pool, as depicted, graphically, below. It shows too that risk managers now have a lot more say over bonuses and that 85% of bonuses are now deferred for 3 years or more.

The conclusion: this year’s bonuses will not only be smaller, heavily deferred, and non-guaranteed, individually it will also be very difficult to come up with any reasonable idea of their size in advance.

Post-financial-crisis Citigroup is an institution without an identity or culture…It is a melting pot that never melted. (Wall Street Journal)

Tony Blair is in the early stages of setting up a financial services business which has registered with the Financial Services Authority. (Wall Street Journal)

Record six month profit for VTB. (Bloomberg)

Pay expectations allegedly being set very low at Morgan Stanley. (Dealbreaker)

Nomura launches major push into European ECM. (Financial News)

We asked things like ‘Are you shooting for a top job at your company?’ And obviously, a whole bunch of women are not. (DealJournal)

My condolences to the currency professional. (Reformed Broker)

How to tell who’s influencing whom in a group discussion. (Technology Review)