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This wasn’t part of the plan. In 2008, when international investment banks were relocating their big-hitters to the Middle East, it was in anticipation of a slew of fees from the region. In fact, the opposite has happened.
Investment banks have earned a total of $643m over the last 12 months – or a 44% drop compared with the previous year – according to figures from Dealogic.
So, capital markets activity has slumped and M&A transactions are now a rare beast. Does this decision to move top deal-makers out the Middle East suddenly look a little rash?
One Morgan Stanley executive believes so. He told the Financial Times : “You have to be in Dubai, even though the place has imploded and the mega transactions aren’t overwhelming. The fees aren’t there.”
Can we expect to see these top investment bankers hop on a plane back to New York or London? Or do firms believe the Middle East’s long-term potential is worth waiting for? Your thoughts please…
These top bankers are mobile bunch and will be transferred to wherever their services are needed most. Last year, Dubai was thought to be the next big thing, and it hasn’t materialised. They may leave to other destinations, but you shouldn’t write off a return to the Middle East.
They are other places to be if Dubai is not working. Abu Dhabi or Riyadh… or even China…
no we will not leave there are new wholesale products that are emerging in the global financial market which is a more sustainable growth for the international community………There will be no systematic risk that brought the financial crisis and global warming issues going forward.
Dubai is a good place to invest and operate but we see growth and activity first in the south east region and Oceania because these region is becoming more attractive and less costly to rune a business and invest. Actiity in Dubai will defenitely resume but you will see more growth in south east asia . New Zealand and Australia will be busy too. India and China will stil have growth but it will be slower. Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore will not be your only prime financial hub in Asia because we see more talents and cost efficiency in the Philippines, New Zaeland and Australia. Financial centres will be spread out across east and south east asia and oceania. It is really going to be an exciting growth because activities on financial market, investment and business will be spread out across the region.
these times could also be seen as a challenge and new opportunities for growth
The important point to note is that Dubai as most of the emerging market has the potential to be the next big thing. A correction in the macro global economics should not steer us away from the basic fundamentals that an emerging market similar to GCC as a whole is exactly that, ‘An Emerging Market’. Hong Kong was not made in 5 years, Singapore too took almost the best part of a decade to become recognised.
If the likes of Dubai, Abu Dhabi are able to hold on to most of the recent Investment and Private Banks that have entered the region than we have the potential of a new financial hub being born. Only time will tell.
Its a bit far fetched to compare Dubai with Singapore and Hongkong. Both these great cities have an infrastructure, a trading history and proper businesses. Dubai has oil and sand. The oil goes out of the country, everything under the sun comes in and the sand remains. 99% of the wealth is in 1% of the indigenous population and most is invested outsdie the region. Any investment inside the region is done on borrowed money. The fantasy is that there is loads of money sloshing around in the region and the investment bankers are under the illsuion that they can have some of it. With living costs exceeding other major cities and such a small part of the pie to share, with no real reason to see this situation changing – the idea of western banks setting up in Dubai cos its the next best thing – is misplaced and completely flawed.