Some rather scary figures suggest that the Dubai dream could be well and truly over for up to a third of expatriate workers who are simply waiting for the school year to end before packing up and going home. But is it really as bad as all that for the financial sector?

UBS is suggesting that a brain drain is on the cards. With the expat community already shrinking, it says that a third could leave by year-end.

“Dubai is a pay-as-you-go model, dependent on foreigners’ money and talent,” Saud Masud, analyst at UBS told the Times . “If foreigners exit, there is a domino effect through the entire economy.”

One example of this cited in The National, was Hem Minstry, a banker made redundant in November who was selling his personal possessions before making the move home at the end of the school year.

Shirley Morrison, managing director of Executive Expatriate Relocations (which helps high-powered bankers make the move to Dubai), says she’s yet to see a large number of bankers pull their children out of school.

“Everyone keeps talking about a big exodus, but we’re still waiting for it,” she says. “The fact is, it’s still incredibly difficult to get your child into a good school in Dubai. A lot of out-of-work bankers are still keeping their options open and, if they still can’t find a job, I think it’ll be August or September before they finally give notice to the schools and decide to return home.”

Although the financial sector has been making cuts in Dubai, the vast majority of redundancies have occurred within the property and construction industries. So should expat bankers give up hope and pack their bags home?

Peter Greaves, director of financial markets at executive search firm McArthur Murray, insists it’s not all bad.

“A lot of people at the associate level, who have been here for a year to 18 months and don’t have much regional experience or many client contacts have struggled to find new work and many have gone home,” he says. “However, at the senior level, a lot of good investment bankers have been made redundant, but are able to get back into the market pretty quickly. Very few firms are building out, but they are using this opportunity to upgrade.”

According to the Dubai Naturalisation and Residence Department (DNRD), 44,000 residency visas were cancelled in the first two months of this year, while 66,000 were issued.