UK
By now, you’re no doubt contemplating what this year’s bonus is gong to be like, rather than thinking about what lies ahead in 2011. Judging by past 12 months, and regardless of what some day-dreamers will tell you, there is little to support a claims of a material increase in bonus payments on last year.
So really, given the dog of a year we have had, most financial services professionals should be happy turn their back on this year and look ahead to the next. Many can already be found (metaphorically) polishing their crystal balls and sharing their predictions over battle-worn shishas.
One thing is clear, the majority of people are expecting things to improve, with most theories centred on something along the lines of “2009 was awful, 2010 was better (if not as good as we hoped) so 2011 should be even better if we just continue on the same trajectory and don’t mess things up”.
A recent tour of the banker hot spots in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha confirmed that many are confident of landing respectable pay-outs in a couple of months’ time, a possible promotion and most importantly, some big mandates as the market picks up. So, for what it’s worth, here is a summary of I’ve picked up on the latest networking events:
· Private wealth bankers will do well, as long as the market continues to recover;
· M&A advisors will make a little more money, but not a material increase on last year;
· Sales and trading will do better than 2010 on the back of increased private wealth being deployed, and accumulation of cash reserves at institutional accounts;
· Some international investments banks will not recruit and others will fire (possibly just before bonuses at the beginning of next year) – ditto for regional banks;
· And finally, for most of the 2011, things will look better than last year, but global macro-economic uncertainty will increase and ultimately affect the region.
So dear colleagues, the reality is that none of us expect a material improvement on things next year. Although we are all confident that we are moving in the right direction, most agree that we are far from being out of the woods.
Ultimately, once bonus and headcount policy are announced (both are imminent), the industry will have a clear indication of what financial services leaders think is around the corner. Either way, it is in these uncertain times when the best opportunities are to be found – stay focused, have a clear strategy and be ready to pounce on what could be your meal ticket – best of luck.
Jamal Bahir (a pseudonym) is seasoned senior private equity and investment management industry veteran based in the Middle East and Europe. He is an advisor to several ruling and trading families from the Middle East, as well as select European governments and private equity funds, advising on their investment, financial and regional political strategy. The author may be reached on jamal.bahir@gmail.com.
Jamal makes a good point – i agree that 2011 better than 2010 but not going to be great year in any case. Alos, yes very intersting to see what bonuse adn recruitment targets are, they will tell us what companies and banks are really expecting for the year.