Saudi Arabia’s new nationalisation push will no doubt have some expats feeling worried about the long-term viability of their career in the kingdom. However, those working in banking can breathe easy – for now.

In a bid to tackle unemployment in the kingdom, the Saudi government has rolled out an aggressive nationalisation programme, called Nitaqat, aimed at reducing the expat workforce in the private sector, which currently stands at around 90%.

The banking sector falls into the ‘green’ zone, which means it doesn’t have to take any action to increase the proportion of Saudi nationals it employs. It’s easy to see why – banks have been progressive in recruiting locals for a few years now and it’s paid off.

One senior investment banker at a Riyadh-based institution says that his team is 90% Saudi nationals and that this proportion is similar in most investment, commercial and retail banking institutions.

“Banks won’t face any issues under this new quota system, given the amount of heavy recruitment of Saudi nationals in the last few years,” he says. “There could be some impact in the back office – specifically IT – but I there shouldn’t be any big upheavals.”

But is it really that simple? In the investment banking sector, the vast majority of local candidates are recruited at a junior level. Banks tend to favour expats for anything relatively senior – VP and above, suggests the banker.

The question is whether Saudi will continue to offer expats roles in the long run.

“Currently, there isn’t enough quality in the Saudi national population for experienced level investment banking roles,” he says. “However, heads of investment banking are pushing to recruit Saudi nationals for both political reasons and because the quality of candidates has improved at the entry level.”

It stands to reason, then, that an increase in the quality of candidates combined with a push towards more nationalisation could see expats marginalised in the long term.

“There’s a general perception that Saudi nationals aren’t suited to sophisticated areas of financial services like investment banking,” adds James Wakefield, director of headhunters Colbalt Abu Dhabi. “This notion is outdated, however, and the local workforce has improved drastically in the last few years. There is still demand for expats, but the bar is a lot higher than it once was and only those with specialist skills or experience that are difficult to find within the local workforce are sought after”

Financial services firms have to justify the recruitment of an expat candidate over a Saudi national, suggests another headhunter in the region.

“It’s increasingly difficult for Saudi firms to justify recruiting an expat based on their experience alone,” he says. “The key is to prove that they have a qualification that can’t be found easily locally – whether that’s an MBA, a PhD, a CFA or even accounting qualifications like the ACA.”