Right now, most financial services professionals around the world are figuring out what to do with their bonuses, but not so in the GCC. Instead, personal safety and career-destroying civil wars, deposed rulers, mobs and violent law-enforcers are the main topic of conversation among Western expats.

You saw the headlines: a guy self-immolates in Tunisia, massive protests follow, 220 die and Ben Ali is out after 23 years of abuse – it’s a textbook revolution.

Soon after, a wave of unprecedented, violent, revolutionary demonstrations is unleashed across the MENA region. Now, unelected out-of-touch despots, who have plundered their countries for up to four decades while ‘their’ people suffer from unemployment, food inflation/scarcity, vast corruption, massive oppression and generally wide-spread poverty are watching in disbelief and fear.

Several have announced rash, ill conceived, “too little, too late” reforms and cash windfalls in favour of the masses… and wiring a few billion abroad and fuelling the Gulfstream just in case.

The panic among expats in the GCC

Fear struck closer home following protests and deaths in Bahrain – at the first sign of trouble and given regional events in the preceding weeks, a lot of Western expats panicked and packed their bags for an impromptu vacation in Dubai or back home.

As the days ticked on, some calm was restored in the tiny kingdom, partly due to the minority ruling Sunnis having taken note of the recent fate of other non-elected leaders and thus starting a dialogue among the country’s opposing factions. At least they appeared to be open to reform.

Most expats are taking a wait and see approach from a personal safety point of view, several in hiding at home, keen to avoid uprooting families without jobs to go to in the current economic environment… for now.

Current events have one important effect in the minds of Western financial services expats: can the GCC withstand the impact of the collapse of a member state? Across the UAE and Qatar recruitment firms, heads of business units and financial services business owners (me included) are being bombarded with CVs from expats in Bahrain looking to get out in case things escalate.

Kuwait is seen as a semi-hardship posting so no one wants to go there (plus the market is tiny in any case). If things get worse, the consensus is that while the UAE and Qatar could pull through, career-wise it may not be it may not be enough of a motivation to stay in the region. Of course, it depends on which regime falls, which brings us to the big elephant in the room…

Is Saudi next?

Everyone is talking about it. Saudi, the regional powerhouse, accounts for the lion’s share of everything: population, GDP, oil and, of course, inequality, corruption and poverty.

Everyone is watching, painfully aware that if this massive regional tinder box ignites the consequences would send huge economic, social and political shockwaves throughout the region and globally.
If this does happen, talk is of Western expats packing their bags and going back home, with the consensus that even if their host countries (for most the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain) are broadly stable, the detrimental effect on careers and ability to make money will not be worth it (let alone the possible personal risks).

Over the past week, reports of expats reconnecting with recruiters and old bosses in Europe and North America are increasing rapidly – given bonus season is wrapping up, right now is seen as the best time to secure a new job, so the timing could be worse.

The GCC financial services industry was facing several headwinds even before this unrest. Now, regional leaders must immediately appease and reassure the Western expat population.

If the GCC gains a reputation for no longer offering viable opportunities, this highly mobile group, indispensible and critical to the region’s development, will rapidly extract itself from the hot zone and this will materially and adversely impact the Gulf’s development.

Jamal Bahir (a pseudonym) is seasoned senior private equity and investment management industry veteran based in the Middle East and Europe. He is an advisor to several ruling and trading families from the Middle East, as well as select European governments and private equity funds, advising on their investment, financial and regional political strategy. The author may be reached on jamal.bahir@gmail.com.