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Our recent poll suggested bankers in Dubai are the most fearful for their futures.
We asked bankers across our sites in Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and Dubai to rate their chances of losing their jobs over the next two years. The bad news? Almost half the respondents – 48.9% – from the booming emirate reckoned the chances were “high to very high” that they would be packing their bags within the next 24 months. And almost three quarters – 72.2% – thought they had a “fair” or worse chance of getting the boot.
This compared to 66.7% who rated their chances “fair” or worse in the UK and 66.1% in Asia.
Most worryingly, almost a quarter of those polled in Dubai – 23% – thought their chances of being shown the door were “very high”. This compares with just 16% in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, including Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia.
Is the Dubai phenomenon set to be a flash in the pan? The Dubai International Financial Exchange is less than two years old and has already attracted the likes of Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to its sun-drenched shores, but rumour has it trade has been disappointing. Do the poll respondents know something that we don’t?
This story doesn’t make sense. With all the activity going on especially in Saudi Arabia why would people lose their jobs?
Employees in the UAE historically tend to be too pessimistic regarding their futures. this comes from the archaic labor laws. in fact the job market for bankers is quite vibrant with numerous global institutions touching shore
This is a clear result of over estimating the region’s potential. International banks were rushing to the region, offering top packages to bankers from all over. One cake…too many people!
Not sure the region’s potential has been overestimated here – there is a lot of work and the cake is big enough and come one we are not talking about hundreds of bankers. There are barely a handful of bankers here. But deals will not come to them, they will get and have to do some selling.
And brendan, I don’t think the archaic labor laws have anything to do with it. You can lose your job in london or new york just as easily.
The whole middle east business and finance issue is mostly a big bluff, it is only a question of time before they are back to milking camels.
its the typical perato’s principal playing its game… the 80:20 principal seems to be creating the uncertainty. Everyone wants to acquire the most profitable clients while rest of the 80% are ignored, so its a situation of over crowding a few shops while the market is open. The balance 80% will start coming up over the next couple of years and the hired employees will see the market widening across horizontally… its running vertically right now. The organisations who are in it for the long run will be successful so will its employees. Organisations with here and now approach may not go roo far,, like they say its not the ferrari which will win the race in the gulf… its the camel….
Interesting comments. However, since bonuses have been paid, many bankers have jumped ship in Dubai, DIFC etc dazzled by larger pots of tax free money. The truth is there is plenty to do, but if you have no long term Middle East relationships to do business with, you will find it tough. Strong relationships are key to business success. However, the jumping ship is also about rising costs inflation around close to 10%, rental rises for two years 15% (capped 7% in 2007), school fees up 16%……the tax free money is being eroded !
Having lived and worked in the UAE for a number of years I would suggest that the gulf market is much smaller than people think. It is totally over-banked. Unless there can be stability and Dubai can capitalise on its nearness to a peaceful Iraq and an Iran welcomed into the international community one has to remember that Dubai is built on sand.
I think that business is booming in the mideast and it is geared for more growth especially in the corporate finance/capital markets areas. The key is being able to establish and maintain long-term regional relationships that will add value to both ends, add to that the increasing demand for innovative solutions by clients.
Think about it, an average of two IPOs per month in Saudi–thats huge business and more to come. Some banks choose to be located in dubai because of its huge growth in real estate and hence, real estate finance. However, most M&A business comes from Saudi.
As for regional bankers seeking jobs, you ought to select the right recruitmentgent who is regionally connected and capable of getting you an interview.
Does anyone have any insight into the Infrastructure space ? I have significant North American power generation greenfield, Acquistion & Divestiture experience and I am ready for a change a venue.
This is something that is expected. All these bankers have flocked to the region believing that this would be the “new eldorado” of M&A and IPO activity. Shock and horror, there is no M&A (within the region) and no IPOs that would see the new boys in town executing them. Dealflow is a problem and without which you will have a generation of bankers with very limited tangible skills. They put together great pitchbooks but can do very little else.
Another point relates to the grand delusions of many of these “foreign banks” believing that by having a team of quasi-arabs that they will be able to penetrate the pockets of wealth that are found in some corners of the region.
As the old bedouin saying goes, “on somedays you look into the desert you see the oasis, but on most the heat shows you a mirage”…
“an average of two IPOs per month in Saudi–thats huge business” <<< I don't agree with that. IPO deal flow in Saudi remains limited to local Saudi / Saudi based banks, due to CMA and other legal reasons. Plus, you need to have an onshore local retail network to be able to take the IPO successfully. So far, none of the Dubai based banks managed to land an IPO deal in Saudi.
Once we start getting to Q3, I believe we will hear about layoffs in Dubai, particularly within international banks that came rushing to the region, and failed to deliver. A classic over estimating trap….
There will be alot of investment in the infrastructure sector and we will see some activity in that..also consolidation in the banking sector is eminent, there are alot of banks in the region and I see foregin banks advising and financing such deals.
In addition the Sheikh of Abu Dhabi has very aggressive development plans for Abu Dhabi and so has Qatar, Bahrain and other regional states, I dont see in people packing their bags in the near future. Infact we will see more people moving accross and working on developing good relationships with the Governments.
Lately, there is alot of privatisation to be carried out in the region hence as someone mentioned above its all about how strong relationship you have with the entities and estates that count.
The Pvt. Banking/Broking arena is certainly overbanked.. but the I-Banking area still has a lot of scope..
IPOs, capital raising is happening every day, and largely M&As are still in the future..
the polls dont offer clarity as to who were the respondents.. were they pvt. banker? I-bankers?
Does GCC GDP and population justify to have a large ibanking operation based in the region?
Any of the big 5 EU countries has higher GDP and population, and they do not have full I banking capabilities but rely on London based bankers to a great extend. On the positive side, growth rates in GCC are high and wealth concentrated in few pockets, which require banking services.
Dubai inc is strongly ‘encouraging’ banks who do, or want to do, business in the region to set up office locally. That does not mean that there is more business generation out there – it is just that the cost of business has increased for the banks which wish to remain there and not be penalised. After all, they need more bankers to fill the offices and housing and spend their bonuses in the shopping malls. Correct me if I’m wrong
The UAE, especially Dubai, has huge growth potential. I feel that there is allot of “briefcase bankers” flocking to Dubai/DIFC with short-term expectations of making quick money.
Business in this region is based upon long-term relationships. Local banks and financial institutions have attracted excellent talent from local pools as well as from international banks, which has improved the performance of theses institutions therefore competing head to head with the international players.
The other local phenomenon is the local stock markets. We’ve had ups and downs; allot of money made and lost and there is minimal interest of HNWI and institutions to invest into offshore markets; especially equities – listed or unlisted. There have been some very high profile international deals out of DIG, Dubai Holdings etc. but these are not the norm. Saudi is a closed market other than the local banks and the few international players licensed by SAMA. Primary focus today is the overheating real estate market.
We need to give this region a few more growth years before attracting real capital market activity. Regulatory controls are still juvenile with young and shallow equity markets.
The whole place is bunkum. No innovation, no culture, no freedom, no transparency. Fools with gold taps building a monuments to nothing in the desert.
The reality of Dubai is that quality in almost every walk of life is utterly lacking. Customer service, particularly in the banking sector, is India circa 1995. But the quality of life for expat families is good and pre-delivery property market is ludicrously cheap….if even some of the hype is right.