As all but the media phobic will now know, Bill Winters is leaving JP Morgan. By all accounts his exit came as a surprise to both JP Morgan’s people in London and to the great man himself. Ostensibly, the future is now clear: Jes Staley will be CEO of the investment bank and all will continue as before.
However, Winters’ sudden removal also raises the possibility of collateral damage related to his exit. JP Morgan could be a changed place in future, for the following reasons:
1) London may be less significant within JP Morgan than before
As co-head of investment banking with New York-based Steve Black, Winters was based in London. Jes Staley will be based in New York. Logic suggests London’s investment bankers will therefore be less prominent than previously. ‘Insiders’ told The Times that following Winter’s departure the axis of power within the investment bank has ‘shifted definitively’ to New York.
2) Bankers in London may leave next year
Mild-mannered Winters was instrumental in building JP Morgan’s derivatives business in the City. He was well liked by his underlings, one of whom told The Telegraph that, “plenty of people will be dismayed to see him go.” Clearly aware of this, Staley is said to be on a charm offensive in London today.
Fortunately, Winters worshippers are unlikely to be so dismayed to see him go that they will leave until their bonuses have been paid in 2010.
3) Bankers in London may leave next year to work with Winters
It’s not clear what Winters will do with his newfound freedom. There is speculation that he might work for Lloyds Banking Group. There is also speculation that he might join UBS or Deutsche. Providing that Winters resists the lure of Lloyds it’s possible that JP Morgan bankers in London will migrate to join him at his new employer.
4) Cazenove bankers may feel a little jittery
Winters was ‘instrumental’ in arranging the Cazenove joint venture which is rapidly becoming a Cazenove buyout.
Following both his departure and ominous rumbles from US analyst Dick Bove about the possible need for JP Morgan to spin out its capital markets business due to regulatory capital requirements, Cazenove bankers may now be feeling more precarious than they were earlier this week.
5) Traders may be less important within JP Morgan than they used to be
Bill Winters was a trader. Jes Staley is an asset manager. Enough said.
UK

5) not entirely correct – Jes spent 20 years in the IB with a leading role in quite dynamic settings.