New hires will pay off very, very soon for Greenhill, Lazard and Evercore

Gareth Davies may have got the right idea. Last week it emerged that Davies, a star restructuring banker, was quitting Close Brothers to join Greenhill as a managing director in its restructuring business.

If analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods are right, Davies has made a good move. Thanks to boutiques’ accumulation of senior staff since 2008, they’re predicting a big uptick in revenues at advisory firms in 2010 and 2011, with Greenhill expected to take the lead.

Lazard has hired 17 MDs over the past year. Greenhill has hired at least three across industries which tend to benefit from a recovery (industrials, energy and infrastructure), and Evercore has hired at least seven SMDs (senior managing directors).

Source: KBW (click to expand)

KBW’s analysts claim that it takes 18-24 months for new hires to meet their revenue-generating potential. Although revenues per MD at Greenhill have suffered this year (which doesn’t augur well for 2009 bonuses), they should therefore leap upwards from 2010.

Revenues per MD

Source: KBW

Comments (4)
  1. No Sarah, you’re not supposed to use 3-D charts… This isn’t ok…. The conservative colors are good though. Lots of black, greys and white are fine…
    Don’t use everything Excel and PowerPoint offer you!

  2. @McKinsey trained consultant – Those are not my charts. If they were, they would be two dimensional and in either beige and brown or pink and lurid yellow. These were produced by the esteemed analysts of KBW.

  3. Mckinsey trained consultant – do you have a name or does McKinsey define your very existence – sad. What are you going to name your kids ?BCG 1&2 ?

  4. He will no doubt plot them on a 2×2 matrix measuring performance vs. cost, driving them to a life of drugs and prostitution…

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