Needless to say, cash bonuses will be small this year; stock bonuses will be big. BarCap says it will be deferring 40-60% of its bonuses for 2009; Citigroup is issuing $1.7bn of common stock for the sole purpose of paying employees; and Goldman is paying all its senior people in stock.

While deferrals could create cashflow problems for anyone relying on enormous cash payouts, the new model of big salaries and deferred stock may prove advantageous, if, as some banking analysts are predicting, bank stocks have further to rise.

The most bullish of the bulls is high ranking US banking analyst Dick Bove, who thinks US bank stocks could double by the end of next year.

“Two to three fold gains in the price of many bank stocks is very possible,” Bove tells us. “In the medium term, many loan loss provisions will be eliminated.”

Longer term, however, Bove is predicting bank stocks will fall again as new regulation converts banks into public utilities and, “dividend payment stocks.”

Since January 2009, Barclays stock has risen around 112% and Goldman’s stock has risen around 180%. However, Goldman’s stock is down around 16% on its October highs, and Citigroup’s stock has fallen 48% since January.